Economic Update – May 2020

Market and Economic Overview

Australia

• The coronavirus ‘curve’ of known cases has flattened out, suggesting social distancing measures have been successful in slowing the spread of the disease.
• The focus is now on a gradual easing of restrictions – people will gradually start returning to work as non-essential areas of the economy start to function again.
• It will take time for conditions to normalise completely – borders remain closed to overseas visitors, for example, so tourism-related areas of the economy will continue to struggle.
• It remains too early to say how significant the slowdown will be, but some observers have suggested the Australian economy could contract by approximately 5% in 2020. At the same time, consensus expectations suggest unemployment could double, from around 5% in February to perhaps 10% during the course of this year.
• Job security is low and house prices appear likely to fall, which could further dampen sentiment. For now, credit card spending is running nearly -20% below the corresponding period a year ago, highlighting the current weakness in consumer confidence.

United States

• By the end of April, more than 1 million people in the USA had been diagnosed with coronavirus.
• Like other countries, the US had implemented various closures and restrictions. The ‘30 Days to Slow the Spread’ expired on 1 May 2020 and President Trump has suggested social distancing restrictions will not be extended.
• Trump appears determined to reopen the economy as soon as possible, against the recommendations of some medical professionals. Ultimately, he wants the economy firing again in the run-up to the Presidential election in November.
• The latest data showed the world’s largest economy shrank at an annual rate of -4.8% in the March quarter, even worse than consensus forecasts.
• The downturn was due to economic disruptions in March. Data for the June quarter is expected to be worse still given more extensive closures during April, at least.

Europe

• Much of Europe remains in lockdown, although numbers of cases vary quite markedly across the region. Germany – the largest economy in Europe – has much fewer cases than some other countries such as France, Italy, Spain and the UK. The economic impact might therefore differ between countries but will undoubtedly be significant overall.
• Euro Area GDP growth declined at an annual rate of -3.3% in the March quarter and is expected to fall further in the June quarter.
• Annual growth rates were lower still in some of the region’s major economies: France -5.4%; Italy -4.8%; and Spain -4.1%.

New Zealand

• Restrictions have been eased in New Zealand; ‘Level 3’ measures are now in place – similar to those in Australia – after the more stringent ‘Level 4’ lockdown was no longer deemed necessary.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains very active with its recently introduced asset purchase program. The Bank is buying large amounts of government and local authority bonds to ensure the smooth operation of the local fixed income market.

Asia

• China’s economy shrank at an annual rate of -6.8% in the March quarter; a sharp slowdown from the 6.0% year-on-year growth seen in the December quarter of 2019.
• The industrial sector was hardest hit by the near two-month shutdown of non-essential parts of the economy.
• Whilst alarming, the short-term contraction will not impede China’s long-term growth trajectory, according to officials. That said, conditions could remain subdued in the foreseeable future.

Australian dollar

The Australian dollar clawed back all of its lost ground from March. The currency gained 7.0% against the US dollar, closing April at 65.5 US cents. Similar strength was seen against other currencies too.

 

Commodities

Most commodity prices finished the month of April stronger as demand uncertainty eased. Following sharp falls in March, copper (8.0%), nickel (8.0%) and zinc (3.4%) posted solid gains, although not enough to recover previous losses.

Iron ore (1.4%) reversed its downward trend on signs of a turnaround in Chinese manufacturing activity and reflecting China’s economic stimulus plans.

Oil prices (WTI Crude -26.6%) continued to fall, although stemmed losses towards month end on evidence of falling production.

The gold price (7.6%) again proved resilient against a backdrop of ongoing market uncertainty, while platinum (9.8%) and silver (10.1%) bounced back after March’s sharp falls.

 

Australian equities

The equity market recovery in the last week of March continued throughout April. The S&P/ASX 100 Accumulation Index rose 8.4%, registering its strongest monthly return since 1988.

Confidence was initially supported by the huge monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic and later by encouragement that social distancing restrictions were proving effective.

The full impact of the virus remains unknown, however, and the shock to company earnings and balance sheets has placed additional pressure on dividend policies. At the same time, most companies have withdrawn earnings guidance.

Australia’s banks continued to underperform, as delays to mortgage payments and decreased property activity threaten earnings. The growing prospect of dividend cuts and the view that the banks will play a key role in supporting the economy has further dragged on investor sentiment.

 

Listed property

After plunging dramatically in March, global listed property markets rebounded in April. The COVID-19 situation continues to be the dominant driver of property securities. Due to virus containment measures globally, including widespread lockdowns, there are rising expectations for sweeping rent abatements across the sector, particularly in the most heavily hit sub-sectors such as discretionary retail. Many listed property securities globally have now withdrawn their earnings and dividend guidance due to the uncertainty.

 

Global equities

Unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal support helped global markets stage a remarkable recovery. The MSCI World Index bounced 10.6% in local currency returns in April – its strongest month since 1975. The appreciation of the Australian currency tempered global equity returns for domestic investors, with the MSCI World Index rising ‘only’ 3.7% in Australian dollar terms.

UK equities were the weakest performers in April, with oil giant Shell announcing a cut in its dividend. Financial stocks also weakened after Lloyds revealed a large drop in profits. Disappointing returns from energy and financials stocks have contributed to the underperformance of the MSCI World Value Index in recent months.

 

Global and Australian Fixed Income

Bond markets were substantially calmer in April compared to March as central bank support programs appeared to be having their desired effect.

The Reserve Bank of Australia, for example, has bought around $50 billion of government and state government bonds in the past few weeks. This has materially improved liquidity and helped steady the local bond market.

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields closed April just 0.03 percentage points lower, at 0.64%. Yields also declined in the UK, Germany and Japan, by 13 bps, 12 bps and 5 bps, respectively.

Australian yields moved in the opposite direction, though not significantly. The yield on 10-year Commonwealth Government bonds closed the month 13 bps higher, at 0.89%. This resulted in a modest negative return from the domestic bond market.

 

Global credit

Like shares, corporate bonds were buoyed by an improvement in risk appetite globally. Credit spreads – the difference in yield between corporate bonds and comparable high-quality government bonds – narrowed substantially.

Companies looked to take advantage of improving risk appetite and strong inflows into the asset class by offering a substantial amount of new bonds. In some cases, this was to bolster their balance sheets to help cushion the impact of a more prolonged period of lower profitability.

 

^{Source: Colonial First State}